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October 2014
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Oct. 30th, 2014 weather watcher report

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Arroyo Grande  60/65
Atascadero  47/79
CA Valley  65/81
Cambria  60/65
Corbett Canyon  55/76
Cuyama  49/83
Goleta  51/75
Hearst Castle  58/82
Lompoc  48/75
Los Osos  54/71
Morro Bay  56/68
Paso Robles  47/82
San Luis Obispo  51/74
San Miguel  46/79
Santa Barbara  57/76
Santa Maria  55/77
Santa Ynez  46/82
Shandon  45/83
Solvang  46/80
Templeton  44/78
Vandenberg AFB  55/75

Friday rainfall likely with locally heavy potential

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

It is not ideal timing for people hoping to be out and about for trick or treating, or for those heading to high school football games Friday evening around the Central Coast but that is the time we expect some of the most intense rain as a cold front will knife thru the area.

Today we sit at 188 days without significant rainfall (.10” or greater) and with the multi-year drought taking it’s toll the rainfall is badly needed. That does bring some potential hazards to look for however, it is possible trees could struggle under the weight of rain if they are not healthy. Also bare ground could become muddy quickly.

The guidance we use to develop forecasts are in fairly close alignment, .25-.75” of rain with some high-side potential of 1.25” in a few spots.

The reason the system has produced more confidence over the week is that it looks to be connecting with upper level support. A preceding SW flow should prime the pump before a cold upper level low drops through.

Showers will follow the front and could continue in an on-off fashion into late morning Saturday, but I think activity should be done prior to the Cal Poly football game Saturday evening.

It will be a cool and breezy Saturday however with highs only in the 60s.

We’ll have another quiet period after the storm, offshore winds re-develop and make Monday-through mid-week mild. More rain is possible at the end of next week. (click on the graphic for a larger image)

This is actually a conservative forecast, I would not be surprised to see more.

Weather Watcher Report for October 29, 2014

By: Amanda Starrantino, KSBY

Arroyo Grande 56/86
Atascadero  50/87
Avila Beach  57/74
CA Valley  38/83
Cambria  56/86
Cayucos  56/78
Corbett Canyon  61/87
Creston  51/81
Cuyama  43/77
Goleta 58/86
Grover Beach  56/73
Guadalupe  55/88
Hearst Castle  61/82
Lompoc  46/8/4
Los Osos  60/79
Morro Bay  64/76
Nipomo  55/83
Oceano  56/73
Orcutt  55/87
Paso Robles  44/85
Pismo Beach  58/73
Pozo  53/87
San Luis Obispo  68/90
San Simeon  54/76
Santa Barbara  51/78
Santa Margarita  53/86
Santa Maria  51/90
Santa Ynez  46/90
Shandon  52/80
Solvang  45/88
Templeton  48/88

Halloween rainfall looks heavier

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

I have been upping my forecast for rain most of this week, and this morning I did it again. A southerly fetch of supply moisture looks to link up with the front as it passes on Friday afternoon into the evening with lingering rains into Saturday morning.

A range of .25-.75” exists with some 1” potential at the northcoast and hills. Highest totals should be in SLO county but SB county also looks .10-.60”.  (Click graphic for larger view)

Prior to that we have a pretty nice day today in the 80s with Thursday seeing an onshore flow slowly return. Some morning marine clouds on Thursday with temps returning into the 70s.

Again rain Friday into early Saturday with partly cloudy, cool and breezy conditions by Saturday afternoon. Sunday looks dry.

Some offshore winds return the early part of next week and rain potential could return at the end of next week. It is fall, and these swings in weather conditions are more common this time of year.

I know some trick or treaters will not like the timing on the rain, but after 180+ days without much more than a few hundredths here and there you’ll excuse the inconvenience over the necessity of it.

Warm before it gets wet

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

There is a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather on the West Coast through Wednesday; it’ll produce clear skies and offshore morning winds fueling a run of 80s for many.

Onshore winds return Thursday for a cool-down with some marine clouds returning.

Our 190 day run of dry weather (rain more than hundredths of an inch) should end Friday as a cold low pressure system will drop into the region and shoot a cold front through the Central Coast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Models are finally lining up a little better on potential rain, .10-.40”.

Saturday early showers are possible but we should be heading toward a partly cloudy and breezy day with cool highs in the 60s. The tail part of next week could see another run-in with rain. We need it.

October 27th, 2014 Weather Watcher Report

By RaeAnn Christensen, KSBY Forecaster

Avila Beach 58-78
Bradley 39-75
CA Valley 66-42
Cambria 52-71
Corbett Canyon 55-80
Creston 43-69
Cuyama 38-65
Goleta 46-75
Hearst Castle 51-71
Lompoc 55-77
Los Osos 56-72
Morro Bay 57-72
Nipomo 47-80
Orcutt 56-75
Paso Robles 36-72
Pismo Beach 58-78
Port San Luis 60-73
San Luis Obispo 56-78
Santa Barbara 55-77
Santa Maria 60-79
Santa Ynez 43-79
Shell Beach 58-78
Solvang 42-79
Templeton 38-73
Vandenberg AFB 53-70

Rain could fall on trick-or-treaters

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Offshore winds in the night and morning hours will lead to clear skies and warm temps through Wednesday. Onshore winds return Thursday and temps start to cool. highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 80s for much of the area.

Later Friday, Halloween, a cold front moves over the area and it looks to produce rain in the evening. Models disagree on amounts. One says up to .30″ is possible but another keeps activity under .10″

There is another rain chance around the 7th, so at least November is bringing some rain potential.

October 26th, 2014 Weather Watcher Report

By RaeAnn Christensen, KSBY Forecaster

Avila Beach 58-77
Bradley 49-72
CA Valley 47-67
Cambria 50-72
Corbett Canyon 56-78
Creston 50-71
Cuyama 53-62
Goleta 55-80
Hearst Castle 54-70
Lompoc 52-75
Morro Bay 55-71
Nipomo 57-79
Orcutt 49-78
Paso Robles 49-74
Pismo Beach 58-77
Port San Luis – 59-73
Santa Barbara 58-81
Santa Maria 56-81
Santa Ynez 50-77
Shell Beach 58-77
Solvang 50-78
Templeton 43-72

Cool weather through Monday, then warm temps on the way

By RaeAnn Christensen, KSBY Forecaster

Gusty Northeasterly winds can be expected at times through early Monday morning. We will see winds of 10-25 mph with higher gusts possible. There is a high wind advisory in effect for parts of Santa Barbara County, possibly seeing gusts of up to 50 mph. So be careful if you are driving in canyon areas or are near the water because of the high surf. Temperatures will be cooler through Monday. Then a ridge of high pressure starts building in by Tuesday, with a warming trend through Thursday. Changes come for Halloween on Friday. Models are showing right now there is a 20 percent chance for showers Friday and Saturday.

October 25th 2014, Weather Watcher Report

By RaeAnn Christensen, Weather Forecaster

Avila Beach 58-74
Cambria 50-68
Corbett Canyon 52-75
Creston 51-70
Cuyama 55-75
Goleta 55-76
Lompoc 52-75
Morro Bay 55-68
Nipomo 53-75
Orcutt 50-75
Paso Robles 51-75
Pismo Beach 58-74
Port San Luis 62-72
San Luis Obispo 58-75
Santa Barbara 50-78
Santa Maria 56-77
Santa Ynez 55-79
Shell Beach 58-74
Solvang 52-78
Templeton 44-71