by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist
It is not ideal timing for people hoping to be out and about for trick or treating, or for those heading to high school football games Friday evening around the Central Coast but that is the time we expect some of the most intense rain as a cold front will knife thru the area.
Today we sit at 188 days without significant rainfall (.10” or greater) and with the multi-year drought taking it’s toll the rainfall is badly needed. That does bring some potential hazards to look for however, it is possible trees could struggle under the weight of rain if they are not healthy. Also bare ground could become muddy quickly.
The guidance we use to develop forecasts are in fairly close alignment, .25-.75” of rain with some high-side potential of 1.25” in a few spots.
The reason the system has produced more confidence over the week is that it looks to be connecting with upper level support. A preceding SW flow should prime the pump before a cold upper level low drops through.
Showers will follow the front and could continue in an on-off fashion into late morning Saturday, but I think activity should be done prior to the Cal Poly football game Saturday evening.
It will be a cool and breezy Saturday however with highs only in the 60s.
We’ll have another quiet period after the storm, offshore winds re-develop and make Monday-through mid-week mild. More rain is possible at the end of next week. (click on the graphic for a larger image)
This is actually a conservative forecast, I would not be surprised to see more.