Record heat possible by end of the week

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Monday a weak cold front will scrape past the Central Coast but as high pressure builds in behind its departure the winds will really start to get cranking on Tuesday with winds averaging 15-30mph with higher gusts at the coast and mountains could see gusts exceed 40mph and a wind advisory has been issued for the Santa Barbara county mountains already as a result.

Upper level ridging will take place Wednesday into the weekend and winds will shift offshore and temperatures will soar. Record breaking heat is possible Thursday through Saturday with 80s and 90s in the forecast.

There is a pattern change next week but the problem is that even though temperatures will cool the chances for rain look best elsewhere in the state, and no real rain is expected for several weeks.

As we get into April the chances for significant rains goes down dramatically as weather patterns shift to their semi-permanent late-spring and summer positions which produces more occasional low clouds and fog than storms.

Weather Watcher Report for March 22, 2015

By: Amanda Starrantino, KSBY

Arroyo Grande 48/66

Atascadero 42/68

CA Valley 34/74

Cambria 47/63

Corbett Canyon 50/71

Cuyama 43/73

Goleta 51/69

Grover Beach 48/66

Hearst Castle 70

Lompoc 52/68

Los Osos 49/65

Morro Bay 54/59

Nipomo 47/70

Oceano 48/66

Orcutt 47/70

Paso Robles 49/79

Pismo Beach 54/64

Pozo 42/70

San Luis Obispo 53/74

San Miguel 43/75

Santa Barbara 58/73

Santa Maria 51/74

Santa Ynez 50/79

Shandon 44/70

Shell Beach 47/66

Solvang 52/76

Templeton 42/67

Vandenberg AFB 48/66

Warming trend on tap for the week ahead

By: Amanda Starrantino, KSBY

Sunday closes the weekend with cooler temperatures than we have been seeing. A weak trough will increase overnight through the morning with low clouds more towards the coast. A dry system will move through until late Sunday and will by followed by gusty northerly winds Sunday night through Monday night.

A high pressure system is making it’s way in that will bring a warming trend for the week. Above normal daytime temps are expected Wednesday through Friday. The only precipitation expected for the week will be in southwest California with only some light showers and patchy drizzle.

Weather Watcher Report for March 21, 2015

By: Amanda Starrantino, KSBY

Arroyo Grande 51/65
Atascadero 45/80
CA Valley 33/77
Cambria 49/64
Corbett Canyon 51/74
Cuyama 45/73
Goleta 51/69
Grover Beach 51/65
Hearst Castle 58/70
Lompoc 45/68
Los Osos 46/66
Morro Bay 47/59
Nipomo 49/69
Oceano 51/65
Orcutt 50/72
Paso Robles 38/79
Pismo Beach 46/64
Pozo 47/78
San Luis Obispo 44/74
San Miguel 46/79
Santa Barbara 57/73
Santa Maria 48/74
Santa Ynez 45/79
Shandon 47/78
Shell Beach 51/68
Solvang 49/81
Templeton 44/78
Vandenberg AFB 50/71

Weekend ends cool, warming trend follows

By: Amanda Starrantino, KSBY

The weekend will end with cooler weather. Although not as warm as we have been feeling on the Central Coast, these temps are still above normal for the season. An upper level trough will bring morning low clouds and fog to most areas. Mostly cloudy and partly cloudy skies will be seen on Sunday into Monday. As the week progresses, a warming trend will begin. We start off with an onshore flow and end the week with and offshore. Temps will start off with high’s in the mid 70’s and end the week with highs in the upper 80’s. The week is looking dry and next weekend very hot.

March 20th, 2015 weather watcher report

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Arroyo Grande 47/66
Atascadero 42/80
CA Valley 33/81
Cambria 52/68
Corbett Canyon 54/72
Cuyama 43/81
Goleta 54/68
Grover Beach 44/68
Hearst Castle 56/76
Lompoc 43/72
Los Osos 49/73
Morro Bay 50/64
Nipomo 48/68
Oceano 48/68
Orcutt 47/71
Paso Robles 40/83
Pismo Beach 49/63
Pozo 35/84
San Luis Obispo 45/70
San Miguel 40/81
Santa Barbara 60/76
Santa Maria 44/72
Santa Ynez 41/81
Shandon 39/86
Shell Beach 49/63
Solvang 40/80
Templeton 37/81
Vandenberg AFB 45/65

Weekend will see temps cool a little

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Breezy afternoon northwesterly winds are on tap for the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures and night and morning low clouds and fog at the coast. Highs will be in the 60s at the beaches and 70s elsewhere

A cold front pushes thru the state on Monday but rain should stay north of the area, winds Monday will calm down however after the front passes strong winds develop later Monday night and stay strong into Wednesday. I think some winds could exceed 35mph.

Weather stays dry through the end of the month but there are some signs that early April could bring us some showers to start the month, but it is still near the end of the current model run and we need to see over the next week if it is something to get excited about.

March 19th, 2015 weather watcher report

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Arroyo Grande 49/78
Atascadero 41/82
CA Valley 35/77
Cambria 53/72
Cuyama 44/75
Goleta 52/68
Grover Beach 50/75
Lompoc 48/75
Los Osos 53/73
Morro Bay 51/72
Orcutt 48/77
Paso Robles 41/82
Pismo Beach 49/74
San Luis Obispo 45/80
San Miguel 41/80
Santa Barbara 56/74
Santa Maria 43/78
Santa Ynez 43/81
Shandon 43/85
Shell Beach 49/74
Solvang 43/81
Templeton 41/81
Vandenberg AFB 48/69

California drought detailed

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

The big news item today was Gov. Jerry Brown’s $1 billion dollar plan to address water needs in the state. Now in our 4th year of drought and with a very meager rain season ending, most estimates are that there is about 1 year left in above ground water supply and that ground water is being used far too quickly.

Here on the Central Coast communities like SLO and Santa Maria are assuring residents that ample supply exists but other cities like Cambria are simply trying to figure out how they will simply get through summer.

In the weather department I have been giving you weekly updates on the reservoir and drought assessment for years now thanks in large part to Greg Murphy who helps keep an eye on the big picture and makes many of the drought graphics you see.Today we made a lot of them to try to give you some perspective on not only where we are on supply but also where we might be going in the months ahead. (clicking any image will make it larger)

The first two are self-explanatory, the reservoirs really needed rain and with time running out on the rain season the regular summer evaporation will put a number dangerously low.

The drought indicator is interesting in that more than 99% of the state is in a drought with 40% in the highest designation.

This is a look at the statewide Palmer Drought Severity Index over time. It indicates not only when the official drought began but also the severity which reached an all time low (which means dry) in July and was actually not much improved last month.

The combination of heat and rain over the next few months will likely make the situation worse. This is NOAA’s long-lead forecast which is technically equal chances of above or below average precipitation however during this period ample rain is not normal. Additionally we are closer to the below average area in the Pac NW, many of our rain events are cold fronts associated with low pressure in the Pac NW so this is also not a good sign for relief. That said, I do think a rain event at the beginning of April is possible but it is just one event in what is expected to be average or below average activity.

Which leads us to the drought outlook which is for a persisting or worsening drought.

This is a comparative look at Lake Naci which is slightly better than this time last year but also drastically low. This is where we’ll see the drought most easily but the impacts will be felt much more broadly.

Breezy weather with very little chance of rain until April

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Most of the winter low pressure systems have passed well to the north of the Central Coast and only the tail ends of cold fronts have crossed over our area, this is again the case on Friday.

NW winds will pick up to 15-25mph and some mid level cloud cover will cross over the area with some low clouds at the beaches, but no rain.

Night and morning clouds over the weekend with breezy afternoon conditions and mild temps is the forecast (60s at the beaches 70s elsewhere).

Yet another weak cold front is on the way Monday, but rain looks to again stay out of the area (there is a very minor chance far north on the SLO county northcoast, but any showers would be extremely light if they happened at all).

I think the larger story will be the building high pressure after that front making Tuesday a windy day, with gusts past 30mph possible.

Middle of next week look quiet and warmer with offshore winds developing.

Models are getting excited about the beginning of April, for a few days now they have been suggesting wet weather develops, let’s hope it continues to develop. We badly need this late-season rain.